This may come as a shock, but I recently discovered that the Trump administration is using false data to justify a policy position based on a preconceived notion unsupported by science.
(“I am shocked,” I say, “shocked!”)
Only it is not about the climate change “hoax,” the “stolen” 2020 election or vaccines that supposedly cause autism. This time, the federal government’s policy shift will have a direct impact on some of our most vulnerable community members, those whose housing depends on federal subsidies.
On Nov. 13, U.S. Housing and Urban Development (HUD) released its 2025 Continuum of Care (CoC) notice of funding opportunity. Last year, Lane County received over $7.5 million from this annual grant. Nearly 75 percent of those funds went to a variety of permanent housing projects, providing 400 units of housing for a mixture of households, including chronically homeless adults, FUSE (frequent user system engagement) participants, people with disabling conditions, people with acute medical needs, and people with co-occurring mental illness and substance abuse disorders. Many of the households served by the grant include children.
The 2025 notice prioritizes transitional housing over permanent housing and caps the latter at 30 percent of the grant. Amanda Borta, Lane County senior program services coordinator, reported at the November meeting of the Poverty and Homelessness Board that 40 percent of those units will have to shift to transitional housing.
This shift in priority is based on the premise that homelessness is primarily caused by mental illness and substance abuse. To back up that claim, HUD cites a 2019 study from the California Policy Lab, which, they claim, “found that substance use disorder contributed to the loss of housing for 50 percent of the unsheltered population, and mental health conditions contributed to loss of housing for 51 percent of the population.”
The only problem is, the authors of that study completely reject HUD’s use of it.
In fact, California Policy Lab recently issued a disclaimer added to the beginning of its study stating, “This study does not describe the prevalence of health conditions among all people experiencing homelessness or explain the causes of homelessness.”
The study used a non-representative sample of the unhoused who were being prioritized for supportive housing and were, therefore, much more medically vulnerable than the broader population of those experiencing homelessness.
In other words, generalizing their study to apply to all who are unhoused is, to use a technical term in the industry, “BS.” The study’s authors note, “we are deeply concerned about these survey results being misused to make broad claims about the causes of homelessness. Hundreds of studies — including our own — show economic pressures are the primary drivers of homelessness [and] that housing people ends homelessness…”
Perhaps worse, the 2025 notice of funding opportunity adds a number of additional criteria that will put 70 percent of the local programs funded by the grant at risk. These include such things as disallowing racial preferences (e.g., any language referring to “diversity, equity and inclusion”), using a definition of sex “other than binary” or conducting activities known as “harm reduction.”
In addition, CoCs must demonstrate cooperation with law enforcement, use of involuntary commitment standards and local laws designed to reduce illegal camping and open drug use. Finally, substance abuse disorder, which was included in the past notice of funding opportunities, is now excluded.
This is a seismic shift away from “housing first”, the concept that you have to get people into housing before you can address such things as substance abuse and mental illness. Jacob Fox, executive director of the local housing authority, Homes for Good, notes, housing first “is the most cost-effective method of ending chronic homelessness. The federal administration’s shift away from this proven strategy will result in more people being homeless in Lane County.”
Eugene Mayor Kaarin Knudson observed in the Poverty and Homeless Board meeting that those “doing really good work are now being penalized for that good work.”
Indeed.
The rate of homelessness had been increasing steadily in Lane County for several years until 2023. For most of the past three years, however, the number of unhoused people in Lane County has been fairly steady at just under 5,000, while we have also nearly tripled our shelter capacity.
While not great, we at least were having some success at stopping the continual growth we have seen over many years in the number of unhoused people on our streets.
That success is now in serious jeopardy. Those doing the good work referenced by our mayor need our support now more than ever.
Dan Bryant is the director of public advocacy for SquareOne Villages and a longtime advocate for more shelter and affordable housing.