Jan. 20 marked one year since President Donald Trump announced, “The golden age of America begins right now,” as his second administration regained the helm of the country.
Now in that “golden age,” masked ICE officers roam the streets; foreign aid and public broadcasting have seen $9 billion in cuts under the “One Big Beautiful Bill,” which permanently extended tax cuts for the wealthiest Americans; “No Kings” protests have drawn thousands; the White House Office of Gun Violence Prevention — a first-of-its-kind office created to coordinate and accelerate national efforts to reduce gun violence — has been dissolved; and environmental regulations have been rolled back.
Trump says it’s no longer the Gulf of Mexico — it’s now the “Gulf of America.” And he’s taking over Greenland.
One of Oregon’s most prominent longtime political voices has been closely watching the nation’s trajectory.
Former Rep. Peter DeFazio, who represented Oregon’s 4th Congressional District for 36 years, in a late December interview with Eugene Weekly, says that he knew Democrats were in trouble even before the Electoral College began tallying votes on Nov. 5, 2024.
DeFazio, who correctly predicted Trump’s 2016 victory, has become something of a political bellwether. And he’s frustrated — particularly with his own party — with the 2024 election, the Dems’ response to Trump and how to handle the new version of Trump that doesn’t have guardrails.
A failed transition
DeFazio says he believes the Democratic Party missed its opportunity long before Election Day. His chief criticism is aimed at President Joe Biden, whose presidency DeFazio viewed as transitional.
“He was supposed to be the bridge to the future,” DeFazio says.
In DeFazio’s view, Biden should have announced his decision not to seek reelection in 2023, giving Democrats time to hold a competitive primary. Instead, Biden exited the race late, and the nomination was effectively handed to Vice President Kamala Harris.
For DeFazio, Harris entered the race carrying the baggage of an unpopular administration without clearly distinguishing how she would govern differently. When she was asked, ‘What will you do differently than Joe Biden, whose approval rating is 38 percent?’ her answer was nothing,” he says. “Great answer. Great answer.”
Old attacks, new consequences
DeFazio argues Harris was also haunted by her unsuccessful 2020 presidential run, particularly by a 2019 video in which she expressed support for incarcerated people and immigration detainees having access to gender-affirming surgery. In the video from the Trump campaign, a snippet shows her talking about supporting taxpayer-funded gender-affirming surgery for inmates. On a 2019 ACLU questionnaire, Harris responded that she supported gender-affirming surgery for inmates and those in immigration detention, though her 2024 presidential platform did not mention taxpayer-funded gender-affirming care for inmates.
That stance resurfaced in a 2024 attack ad that DeFazio compares to the infamous 1964 “Daisy” ad used against Barry Goldwater, which used the prospect of nuclear war to frighten voters. The ad highlighted Harris’s prior statements and concluded with the line: “Kamala’s for they/them. President Trump is for you.”
Though cases of incarcerated people receiving gender-affirming surgery have been exceedingly rare — only two in federal prisons after lengthy court battles, about 20 in California, and a handful in Illinois — DeFazio says the messaging was devastating in a political climate where many Americans lack basic health insurance.
“That ad was a killer,” he says.
Ultimately, DeFazio says Harris was simply the wrong candidate for the moment.
Who could have won?
Asked who might have fared better, DeFazio pointed to Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer and Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear, the latter of whom was reportedly under consideration as Harris’s running mate.
He praised Whitmer for leading a traditionally Republican-leaning state and delivering legislative victories, and Beshear for maintaining strong popularity in deeply conservative Kentucky despite being a Democrat.
In the aftermath of Harris’s loss, a familiar narrative re-emerged: that the U.S. is not ready to elect a woman president, a claim often reinforced by Hillary Clinton’s 2016 defeat.
DeFazio strongly rejects that idea.
“Whitmer would have kicked Trump’s ass,” he says. “You just have to nominate the right person.”
He added that while Harris and Clinton were qualified candidates, neither was right for the political moment.
“America can elect a woman,” DeFazio says. “You just have to nominate the right one.”
Young men, microtargeting and ICE
According to the Center for Information & Research on Civic Learning and Engagement, 56 percent of young men voted for Trump in 2024, compared to 42 percent for Harris — a reversal from 2020, when most young men voted for Biden.
DeFazio attributes that shift to sophisticated microtargeting — the use of personal data such as media habits, geography and interests to tailor political messaging.
“There’s so much data out there on everybody,” he said. “The Democrats are way behind on it.”
But DeFazio says microtargeting isn’t being used only to win votes. He claims ICE has also targeted young men for recruitment — a development he finds alarming.
In an eerie prediction of the Jan. 7 killing by ICE of Renee Good, he said: “They’re going to recruit 10,000 more people who won’t hesitate to grab people and throw them on the ground,” he said. “Maybe shoot them.”
DeFazio is deeply troubled by what he sees as the agency’s increasingly aggressive tactics. “The tactics they’re using — China couldn’t get away with that,” DeFazio said. “Guys in masks throwing people to the ground, only to find out they’re citizens or have green cards.”
He compared ICE’s posture to the Blackshirts, the paramilitary force that helped enforce early Italian fascism under Benito Mussolini.
Immigration and democratic risk
Domestically, DeFazio considers immigration one of the Democrats’ greatest policy failures. In 2022, the U.S. recorded approximately 2.2 million illegal border crossings — the highest annual total on record.
“It took them three years to figure out they had created a mess,” he says of the Biden administration.
While in Congress, DeFazio supported an immigration framework that included registration, background checks, back taxes or fines, and work, study or military service requirements, with a pathway to citizenship after a decade. The proposal failed to pass.
DeFazio says Democrats also failed to communicate their accomplishments, such as the Inflation Reduction Act, while allowing immigration concerns to dominate public perception.
Looking ahead to 2028, he expects affordability and wealth concentration to be defining issues. But in the present, his greatest concern is what he describes as a growing Silicon Valley-linked, Christian nationalist ideology within Trump’s orbit.
One name that concerns DeFazio is Curtis Yarvin, the Palo Alto software developer who doesn’t believe in democracy and thinks a tech czar would better rule the U.S. Yarvin has been promoted by Silicon Valley billionaire Peter Thiel, who sponsored JD Vance’s Senate race. Vance, who currently seems to be the Republican frontrunner for 2028, has become tight with whom DeFazio calls “techno fascists” and those in the Christian nationalist movement.
At a recent “No Kings” rally, DeFazio says he heard widespread concern about trans rights and immigration — but not enough attention to what he fears most. “We are on the verge of losing our representative democracy,” he says.
Unlike Trump’s first term, DeFazio believes there are now fewer internal checks on the president’s impulses. He singled out White House Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller as particularly troubling, describing him as a Christian nationalist and white supremacist.
Asked about the future of American democracy under Trump’s second term, DeFazio did not mince words.
“I’d say 50/50,” he says. “Or less.”